A Paris Market Under Macroeconomic Pressure
In a market that remains difficult to interpret, sellers are beginning to acknowledge a reality now widely shared: Paris property prices are following a downward trend that is unlikely to reverse before year-end.
Persistent inflation, rising interest rates, tighter lending conditions, increased reluctance from banks to grant loans, stricter energy performance (DPE) regulations, and higher property taxes — all these combined factors are exerting lasting pressure on the Paris real estate market, including the luxury segment.
Luxury Real Estate Between Resilience and Initial Adjustments
Until recently relatively protected, the Paris high-end property market is now also experiencing adjustments, with the exception of so-called “zero-defect” properties: turnkey apartments, ultra-prime addresses, or highly sought-after locations — particularly on the Left Bank.
A Sharp Increase in Supply in the High-End Segment
On the sellers’ side, the trend is clear:
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More and more owners are putting their properties on the market, sometimes preemptively.
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Fears of a more significant downturn are prompting earlier sales decisions.
Since May, the number of sales mandates signed has increased by +31% compared to 2022. Vaneau is even recording a historic level of listings, with more than 700 properties for sale in Paris, Neuilly, and Boulogne.
A significant return of investor-sellers is also noticeable, whether for tenanted or vacant properties. The reasons include:
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profitability that has become insufficient in a high-inflation environment,
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net rental yields often below 2% in Paris,
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borrowing rates approaching 4%,
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and a more restrictive regulatory framework, particularly concerning energy-inefficient properties.
Buyers Still Present — But Far More Selective
On the demand side, interest has not disappeared, but it has evolved. Buyers remain active, yet far more selective.
They are:
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less responsive to traditional public listings,
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increasingly handled through qualified client databases,
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facing a much larger supply, giving them genuine bargaining power.
For buyers able to proceed without a financing contingency, negotiation margins can reach up to 10% of the asking price.
It is no longer unusual to see buyers submit multiple offers simultaneously and then arbitrate once their proposals are accepted.
Mortgage Financing: A Key Factor in Market Rebalancing
Loan refusals are multiplying, even for strong profiles. This reality contributes to:
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shortening transaction timelines,
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making it easier to convince sellers to accept price reductions or significantly lower offers.
Average selling times have decreased:
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from 71 days in Q1,
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to 57 days in Q2,
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and 58 days in July.
A Market Reconfiguring Since Early Summer
Since mid-June, a certain stabilization has been noticeable in the luxury segment. At the same time, renewed interest from investors has emerged, driven by:
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an extremely tight rental market,
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no short-term prospect of falling interest rates,
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sellers now more aligned with market realities.
Well-qualified first-time buyers are also returning to certain segments, taking advantage of this new context.
Price Correction Already Underway in Paris
This paradigm shift has logically led to a moderate decline in average prices per square meter in central Paris.
At Vaneau:
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average price per sqm at the beginning of the year: €13,995
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average price at the end of July: €13,515
This represents a 3.4% decrease over six months.