Commercial real estate: the rebound in 2021?
If the marketing of offices is on the decline due to the health crisis, investments in the tertiary sector in 2020 remain significant. Commercial real estate, already fragile before the arrival of the pandemic, has been severely affected since the first lockdown. However, the rebound could arrive in the second half of 2021 for all sectors.
Office real estate: mixed cuts
Commercial real estate, a big victim of the Covid-19 crisis? It’s not so sure. At least not on certain Parisian assets according to the consulting firm Cushman & Wakefield. The geography of investments has not changed much despite the pandemic. Thus, if the Parisian rental market is down 45% to reach the 1.3 million applications placed in 2020. The amounts committed remain stable in Paris, around 3.4 billion euros. This success is largely due to the rise in prices, which rose from 16,000 euros per square meter in 1 year to 18,000 euros per square meter.
The situation is relatively stable thanks to domestic investors. They represent 69% of investment volumes in 2021. Among all assets: assets related to logistics and data centers are the focus of investor interest today. This is also the case for all "sectors on the edge of the ring road (...) more specialized in ICT activities, and Finance-Insurance, or in the administrative sector," says Cushman & Wakefield. These infrastructures and services represent essential elements for the continuity of the country's economic activities during a pandemic and containment period.
Commercial real estate: a need for reinvention
In 2020, 83,400 premises were identified, of which 61,500 are shops, bars and restaurants and commercial services according to data from the Paris Urban Planning Workshop (Apur), in partnership with the City of Paris and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Paris. Covid obliges, in one year, the commercial vacancy of these premises increases by 1.2 points and goes from 9.3 to 10.5% of the park. This context is favorable to investors.
The closure of commercial premises will automatically encourage many lessors to sell the goods they own at low cost in order to recover cash. To buy space, individuals can go to Vaneau Bureaux et Commerces. The company offers its private and institutional clients a whole range of professional assets, for sale or rental, ranging from offices to commercial premises, including shops or business premises. Thus, it is possible to afford a 50 square meter in the 8th arrondissement for 76,000 euros on the Vaneau Bureaux et Commerces site.
2021: between expectations and hopes
Investment in the tertiary sector and commercial premises is far from being obsolete. The crisis is forcing all sectors to reinvent themselves and favor the emergence of new, more resilient investments. Building monitoring seems to be essential in the future for enhancing the value of offices. It makes it possible to verify, through the data of the building, its operation and the actual use of the spaces and services made available to employees.
Companies using teleworking are showing an interest in medium-sized areas between 1,000 and 5,000 square meters, hence the importance of positioning themselves on these assets. Because according to specialists, the tertiary and commercial market could rebound from the second half of 2021, provided that the health crisis is on the way to resolution.